Recently, China's environmental protection department called on the government to set an absolute ceiling for greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 to ensure that China's carbon emissions peak by 2030.

China has made a commitment to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 to fulfill the 2015 Paris climate agreement and curb rising temperatures.

However, on August 13, a study published by the Government's Think Tank National Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation Center (NCSC) showed that unless China restricts carbon emissions into the 2021-2025 five-year plan, it may not be possible. Climate target for 2030.

The National Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation Center is a subordinate unit of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China and plays an important role in formulating climate policies.

“The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is committed to promoting the government's implementation of the carbon emission cap in the 2021-2025 five-year plan, and hopes that the government will release the plan in early 2021, but the final decision is still in the government.” Li Shuo, senior climate consultant of the cooperation center Said.

According to the current growth rate of emissions, China's annual carbon dioxide emissions will increase from 11 billion tons in 2020 to 14.3 billion tons in 2030, and will continue to increase thereafter.

The study also shows that according to the current development trend, by 2030, non-fossil fuels will account for 17.6% of China's energy structure, which is lower than China's previous commitment of 20%.

However, through government efforts and policy restrictions, by 2025, China's carbon dioxide emissions can be limited to about 10.6 billion tons, and remain stable between 2025 and 2030. If more stringent environmental protection measures are introduced, the per capita carbon dioxide emissions can be limited to 7.2 tons by 2030, which is lower than the current emissions of 8.3 tons per capita.

The study shows that there is still room for improvement in policy, as recent policies have focused too much on industrial emissions, particularly in the areas of energy, construction and transportation, rather than consumer-related emissions.

According to the research report, China needs to further reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP, speed up the elimination of backward coal-fired power generation technologies, and implement stricter energy efficiency, waste heat and fuel economy standards.

The government is worried that if more stringent carbon emissions and environmental protection policies are implemented, then high-pollution industries such as steel or coal will have stranded assets.